Measuring the impact of demographic change on relative income poverty in Belgium

Gabriele Mariani and Bea Cantillon

No 2405, Working Papers from Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp

Abstract: This article investigates the reasons behind stagnating or increasing relative income poverty rates in Belgium until 2018, which occurred at a time of stable income inequality. Previous research has focused on the limitations of Belgian welfare institutions and structural changes. This study shifts the focus to demographic changes and their impact on poverty rates. Analysing data from 1985 to 2021, we find that poverty rates significantly vary by household type and citizenship status. Moreover, there has been an increase in single adult households and non-Belgian nationals among the income poor. Previous literature also highlighted the employment distribution within the household as a key factor in explaining poverty. Using shift-share analysis, we assess the contributions of changes in household structures, including the number of earners, and citizenship status to poverty rates. Our findings indicate that shifts in household structures and number of earners within the households, have generally reduced poverty, though with varying regional outcomes in Brussels, Flanders, and Wallonia. Conversely, changes in citizenship status have had a smaller but poverty-increasing impact, particularly in Brussels. The study also highlights the importance of accounting for demographic composition changes affecting the poverty threshold, with different effects observed on a cumulative versus year-to-year basis. Overall, the results suggest that sociodemographic trends alone do not fully explain the persistent poverty rates, indicating the need for further investigation into alternative explanations.

Date: 2024-09
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