Forever temporary? Migration patterns of posted workers and their implications for free movement

Dries Lens, Ninke Mussche and Ive Marx

No 2504, Working Papers from Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp

Abstract: The number of posted workers within Europe has seen impressive growth over recent years. Yet there remain gaps in our understanding of their mobility patterns and how these intersect with free movement migration. This article examines the extent to which the trajectories of posted workers exhibit signs of settlement migration. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset that connects microdata from Belgium’s posting declaration tool with national register and social security data. Our findings show that posting is highly circular and that not all of posting is for short term work. Posting is also “sticky†over time. Yet, even if there clearly is a permanent dimension to the posting of workers, only a very small share of workers settle after having had a posting experience. The situation of posted workers is one of “lasting temporariness†. We hypothesise why that is the case.

Date: 2025-03
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