Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata

Lena Dräger and Michael Lamla

No 201503, Macroeconomics and Finance Series from University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics

Abstract: There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the future interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well as news on money and credit conditions significantly influence disagreement.

Keywords: Disagreement; inflation expectations; microdata (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 D84 E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2015-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_3_2015.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hep:macppr:201503

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