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Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata

Lena Dräger () and Michael Lamla ()

No 201503, Macroeconomics and Finance Series from University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics

Abstract: There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the future interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well as news on money and credit conditions significantly influence disagreement.

Keywords: Disagreement; inflation expectations; microdata (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E58 D84 C33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
Date: 2015-04
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

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https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_3_2015.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hep:macppr:201503

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