Railways and economic development in a late-developing agrarian economy: Bulgaria, 1880–1910

Ivan Dichovski and Stefan Nikolić
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Ivan Dichovski: London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History
Stefan Nikolić: Loughborough University, Loughborough Business School

No 310, Working Papers from European Historical Economics Society (EHES)

Abstract: Can railways promote development in late-developing agrarian economies? This article examines Bulgaria between 1880 and 1910 using newly collected settlement-level data on population growth and agricultural productivity. We employ an inconsequential-units instrumental variable strategy based on least-cost paths. Railway access increased annual population growth by 0.6 percentage points and raised grain and cash-crop productivity by around 12 and 109 kilograms per decare of sown land, respectively. Productivity gains were larger in settlements farther from major export ports, consistent with railways promoting development by facilitating agricultural commercialisation and improving access to foreign markets.

Keywords: Railways; Development; Bulgaria; Growth; Agriculture; Market Access (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N1 N7 N9 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hes:wpaper:0310

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