Does Populism Hinder the Green Transition?

Roberto Balado-Naves (), Manuel Llorca and Tooraj Jamasb
Additional contact information
Roberto Balado-Naves: University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, https://portalinvestigacion.uniovi.es/investigadores/218978/detalle

No 10-2026, Working Papers from Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper examines whether populist prime ministers hinder the green transition in the EU and increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using a panel of 230 NUTS2 regions over 1995–2022, we find evidence of environmental consequences of populist rule. We employ static and dynamic difference-in-differences (DiD) estimators, inverse probability weighting (IPW) adjustments and a heterogeneity-robust estimator. Our baseline static estimates find that populist prime ministers are associated with a 2.2–4.3% increase in regional GHG emissions, a result that withstands robustness checks. Dynamic event-study specifications show no evidence of pre-existing trends, while post-treatment effects emerge immediately after the populist transition and persist over multiple years. Once treatment-effect heterogeneity and switching treatments are fully accounted for, each additional year of populist rule raises regional emissions by around 9% over a period of 6.4 years. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this is driven entirely by right-wing populist prime ministers, while left- and center-wing populist leaders do not have statistically significant environmental impact. Analysis of mediating channels suggests that the emission-increasing effect operates primarily through short-run institutional deterioration and a temporary boost in regional GDP per capita, rather than through direct changes in the energy mix or energy intensity.

Keywords: Populism; Greenhouse gas emissions; Difference-in-differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 D72 Q54 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2026-06-24
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://hdl.handle.net/10398/54295bfa-56f7-4231-9984-448fdc569e75 Full text (application/pdf)
Full text not avaiable

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_010

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics, Porcelaenshaven 16 A. 1.floor, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CBS Library Research Registration Team ().