Explaining “peak car” with economic variables

Anne Bastian (), Maria Börjesson () and Jonas Eliasson ()
Additional contact information
Anne Bastian: KTH, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Maria Börjesson: KTH, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden

No 2016:13, Working papers in Transport Economics from CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)

Abstract: Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact enough to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000’s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

Keywords: Peak car; Fuel price elasticity; GDP elasticity; Travel demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D61 H54 R41 R42 R48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2016-04-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pr~, nep-tre and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Published as Bastian, Anne, Maria Börjesson and Jonas Eliasson, 'Explaining “peak car” with economic variables' in Transportation Research A, 2016, pages 236-250.

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Journal Article: Explaining “peak car” with economic variables (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_013

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