Quantifying the Temperature Effects on China’s Total Agricultural Output

Xiaoguang Chen and Jue Du

No 19-7, EfD Discussion Paper from Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg

Abstract: We pair a county-level panel of annual agricultural production with daily weather outcomes to measure the effects of temperature fluctuations on total agricultural output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing in China. We find four main results: (i) the total agricultural output decreases with higher spring, summer and winter temperatures and increases with higher fall temperatures; (ii) temperature affects agricultural output mainly through its impact on agricultural total factor productivity; (iii) higher temperatures increase the use of several agricultural inputs, including fertilizer, machinery, total planted acres and total irrigated acres; and (iv) we project that China’s aggregate agricultural output will fall annually by 6.5-17.4% during the mid-21st century under the warming scenarios considered by the global climate model UKMO-HadCM3, equivalent to a monetary loss of CNY 147.6395.0 billion in 2008 values.

Keywords: temperature; agricultural output; total factor productivity; input use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q12 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2019-04-01
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.efdinitiative.org/sites/default/files/ ... 7_april_22_final.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:gunefd:2019_007

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in EfD Discussion Paper from Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah ().