Robust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden

Marianne Frisén, Eva Andersson () and Linus Schiöler ()
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Eva Andersson: Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Statistical Research Unit, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG
Linus Schiöler: Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Statistical Research Unit, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG

No 2007:12, Research Reports from University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law

Abstract: Outbreak detection is of interest for several diseases and syndromes. The aim is to detect the progressing increase in the incidence as soon as possible after the onset of the outbreak. A semiparametric method is applied to Swedish data on tularemia and influenza. The method is constructed to detect a change from a constant level to a monotonically increasing incidence. If seasonal effects are present, the residuals from a model incorporating this can be used. The properties of the method are evaluated by application to Swedish influenza data on tularemia and influenza and by simulations. The suggested method is compared with subjective judgments and with other algorithms. The conclusion is that the method works well. A user-friendly computer program is described.

Keywords: Computer program; Exponential family; Influenza; Monitoring; Ordered regression; Subjective judgment; Tularemia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2007-01-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Published as Frisén, Marianne, Eva Andersson and Linus Schiöler, 'Robust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden' in Statistics in Medicine, 2009, pages 476-493.

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2007_012

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