Multivariate outbreak detection

Linus Schiöler and Marianne Frisén
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Linus Schiöler: Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, Postal: Statistical Research Unit, Göteborg University, Box 640, SE 40530 GÖTEBORG

No 2010:2, Research Reports from University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law

Abstract: On-line monitoring is needed to detect outbreaks of diseases like influenza. Surveillance is also needed for other kinds of outbreaks, in the sense of an increasing expected value after a constant period. Information on spatial location or other variables might be available and may be utilized. We adapted a robust method for outbreak detection to a multivariate case. The relation between the times of the onsets of the outbreaks at different locations (or some other variable) was used to determine the sufficient statistic for surveillance. The derived maximum likelihood estimator of the outbreak regression was semi-parametric in the sense that the baseline and the slope were non-parametric while the distribution belonged to the exponential family. The estimator was used in a generalized likelihood ratio surveillance method. The method was evaluated with respect to robustness and efficiency in a simulation study and applied to spatial data for detection of influenza outbreaks in Sweden.

Keywords: Exponential family; Generalised likelihood; Ordered regression; Regional data; Surveillance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2010-09-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-hea
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Citations:

Forthcoming as Schiöler, Linus and Marianne Frisén, 'Multivariate outbreak detection' in Journal of Applied Statistics, 2011.

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http://hdl.handle.net/2077/23390 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Multivariate outbreak detection (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:gunsru:2010_002

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