Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Douglas Hibbs ()

No 20, Working Papers in Economics from University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics

Abstract: A simple "Bread and Peace" model shows that aggregate votes for President in postwar elections were determined entirely by weighted-average growth of real disposable personal income per capita during the incumbent party's term and the cumulative numbers of American military personnel killed in action as a result of U.S. interventions in the Korean and Vietnamese civil wars. The model is subjected to robustness tests against twenty-two variations in functional form inspired by the extensive literature on presidential voting. Not one of these variations adds value to the Bread and Peace model or significantly perturbs its coefficients.

Keywords: US presidential elections; presidential voting; elections and economics; elections and disposable income (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2000-01-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pbe and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (45)

Published in Public Choice, 2000, pages 149-180.

Downloads: (external link)
http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0020.pdf (application/pdf)
http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0020.ps.zip (application/postscript)
http://swopec.hhs.se/gunwpe/papers/gunwpe0020.ps (application/postscript)

Related works:
Journal Article: Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections (2000)
Journal Article: Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections (2000)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0020

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers in Economics from University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jessica Oscarsson ().