Military Factions and Coups: Pathways to Power in Thailand

Anders Johansson and Anders Engvall

No 2022-54, Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series from Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute

Abstract: We study the effect of military factionalization on the likelihood of military coups. Thailand’s military is characterized by the internal power struggle between factions for control of leadership positions an annual reshuffle. Utilizing a unique largescale dataset of all changes in Thai military leadership positions from 1968 to 2018, we identify key factions within the military and examine their potential role in military coups. Factional strength as measured by control of top military positions is positively associated with the likelihood of a military coup. Moreover, factional strength when measured by senior-level positions is also positively related to the likelihood of a military coup. By estimating a panel vector autoregression it is shown that the relationship between military factional strength and coups is unidirectional. We argue that these findings reflect the importance of understanding the dynamic mechanisms within the structure of the armed forces when examining the likelihood of a new coups d’état in countries characterized by recurring military power grabs.

Keywords: military; military coup; coup d’état; factions; Thailand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H56 N40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2022-03-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-sea
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