Bounds on treatment effects on transitions

Geert Ridder () and Johan Vikström ()
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Geert Ridder: University of Southern California, Postal: Dept of Economics, Kaprielian Hall, University Park Campus, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA-90089

No 2011:6, Working Paper Series from IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy

Abstract: This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards, that would narrow the bounds or even allow for point identification. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes.

Keywords: Partial identification; duration model; randomized experiment; treatment effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2011-03-25
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2018)
Working Paper: Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions (2016)
Working Paper: Bounds on treatment effects on transitions (2015)
Working Paper: Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions (2011)
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