Exam Luck and Human Capital Accumulation

Catalina Franco () and Erika Povea ()
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Catalina Franco: Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: SNF, Centre for Applied Research, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Erika Povea: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH, Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway, https://sites.google.com/view/erikapovea/

No 4/2024, Discussion Paper Series in Economics from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

Abstract: We show that subtle standardized test design features can shape long-term educational trajectories. Exploiting random variation in the placement of correct answers in a Colombian college entrance exam, we find that students are 5% less likely to answer correctly when the correct option appears last (option D). This pattern is economically consequential: those assigned to “unlucky” booklets with more Ds in math score 0.011 SD lower overall and are 3% less likely to gain admission to their first-choice major. The mechanism is consistent with students overlooking options at the bottom of the list when scanning answers sequentially under time pressure.

Keywords: Multiple choice questions; standardized tests; answer placement; performance; admissions; higher education (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D83 I21 I23 I24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 62 pages
Date: 2024-04-14, Revised 2025-09-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
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