A regression surprise resolved

Jostein Lillestøl and Jonas Andersson

No 2008/16, Discussion Papers from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science

Abstract: In this note we explore the following surprising fact: In regression with trend and seasonality, the prediction risk is constant for all seasons of a new cycle, despite the fact that it increases with time when the seasons are left out. Awareness of this may be useful to both the practicing statistician and to teachers of statistics. The challenge of resolving the issue may also be given to students of statistics as a research project.

Keywords: Trend and seasonality; Prediction risk; Paradox (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 C35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 6 pages
Date: 2008-09-22
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/164130 (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://hdl.handle.net/11250/164130 [302 Found]--> https://www.unit.no/brage-denne-lenken-er-ikke-lenger-gyldig [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://sikt.no/brage-denne-lenken-er-ikke-lenger-gyldig)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2008_016

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stein Fossen ().