Creaming - and the depletion of resources: A Bayesian data analysis

Jostein Lillestøl () and Richard Sinding-Larsen ()
Additional contact information
Jostein Lillestøl: Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics, Postal: NHH , Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway, https://www.nhh.no/en/employees/faculty/jostein-kare-lillestol/
Richard Sinding-Larsen: Dept. of Geoscience and Petroleum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Postal: NTNU, Department of Geoscience and Petroleum, 7491 Trondheim, Norway, http://www.ntnu.edu/employees/richard.sinding-larsen

No 2017/16, Discussion Papers from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science

Abstract: This paper considers sampling in proportion to size from a partly unknown distribution. The applied context is the exploration for undiscovered resources, like oil accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some geologic size indicators (“creaming”). A Log-normal size model with exponentially decaying creaming factor turns out to have nice analytical features in this context, and fits well available data, as demonstrated in Lillestøl and Sinding-Larsen (2017). This paper is a Bayesian follow-up, which provides posterior parameter densities and predictive densities of future discoveries, in the case of uninformative prior distributions. The theory is applied to the prediction of remaining petroleum accumulations to be found on the mature part of the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

Keywords: Log-normal distribution; sampling proportional to size; resource prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C00 C10 C11 C13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2017-11-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2466710 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2017_016

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stein Fossen ().