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Labour Supply Effects of an Early Retirement Programme

Christian Brinch, Erik Hernaes () and Steinar Strøm

No 33/2001, Memorandum from Oslo University, Department of Economics

Abstract: In 1989, an early retirement program (AFP) was introduced in Norway, with an eligibility age gradually decreasing from 66 to 62, and now covering about two thirds of the labour force. To assess the impact on the labour force we estimate a multinomial logit model for transitions between labour market states on quarterly panel data for 1988-II to 1999-IV. The estimated model tracks the development in transition rates and labour force quite well. Model simulations indicate that abolishing the AFP might increase the total labour force by almost two per cent in five years.

Keywords: Early retirement; panel data; econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 H55 J26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-01-28
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