Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information

Thomas Lindh

No 99, Working Paper Series from Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract: Economic behavior as well as economic resources of individuals vary with age. Swedish time series show that the age structure of the population contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth, inflation and other macroeconomic data. GDP gaps estimated by age structure regressions are closely related to conventional measures using filters, time series methods, and structural models. Reliable estimates of potential GDP and other macroeconomic series often become available after (at least) a one-year lag. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of one or two years. Projections of the population’s age structure are comparatively reliable several years ahead and provide additional information to improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation.

Keywords: Age structure; Inflation forecasts; Potential GDP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E44 J10 O52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 1999-11-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Medium-term forecasts of potential GDP and inflation using age structure information (2004)
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