Qualitative Survey Responses and Production over the Business Cycle

Tomas Lindström
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Tomas Lindström: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

No 116, Working Paper Series from Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract: An examination of Swedish manufacturing data on real output and qualitative business tendency survey (BTS) responses from 1968 through 1998 reveals that survey-based attitude data typically improve the fit of simple autoprojective models of manufacturing output growth. It also turns out that traditional autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models based on business survey data can provide more accurate one-quarter-ahead forecasts of output growth than naive alternatives. Another finding is that when BTS variables concerning ex post (ex ante) output growth are included in the empirical specifications, then no other ex post (ex ante) business survey variables seems to include any additional information about output growth.

Keywords: Business cycles; Economic indicators; Manufacturing; Survey data; Time-series models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C42 C53 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2000-11-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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