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Heterogeneity in Households’ Expectations of Housing Prices – Evidence from Micro Data

Erik Hjalmarsson () and Pär Österholm ()
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Erik Hjalmarsson: University of Gothenburg, Postal: Box 640, 405 30 , Gothenburg, Sweden

No 383, Working Paper Series from Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract: Expectations about future housing prices are arguably an important determinant of actual housing prices, and an important input in decisions on whether and how to transact in the housing market. Using novel micro-level survey data on Swedish households, we analyse households’ expectations of housing prices and how these expectations relate to the characteristics of the respondents. Results show that age is significantly related to housing-price expectations, with the youngest households – whose adulthood largely corresponds to the extended period of rapid housing-price growth in Sweden – having the highest housing-price expectations, thus lending support to the hypothesis that expectations are influenced by personal experiences. Our findings suggest that aggregate measures of expectations might hide important features of the data, which could be of interest to policy makers when choosing regulatory actions or formulating macroprudential policies.

Keywords: Housing prices; Survey data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G41 R20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2019-12-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0383

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