Analysing Mechanisms for Meeting Global Emissions Target - A Dynamical Systems Approach

Shyam Ranganathan () and Ranjula Bali Swain
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Shyam Ranganathan: Department of Mathematics, Postal: Uppsala University,

No 2014:10, Working Paper Series from Uppsala University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing estimated parameters, we nd that limiting the burden of emission reduction to the top 25 global emitters, does not increase their encumbrance. In absence of emission cuts, technology and preferences for environmental quality have to improve by at least 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent if the emission target has to be met by 2020.

Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals; dynamical systems; Bayesian; greenhouse gases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C52 C53 C61 Q01 Q50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2014-10-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-res
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