Swedish Fertility Swings and Public Expenditure for Children
Thomas Lindh and
Ying Hong ()
Additional contact information
Ying Hong: Institute for Futures Study, Postal: Institute for Futures Study, Holländargatan 13, 101 31 Stockholm
No 2011:1, CAFO Working Papers from Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics
This paper studies whether Swedish fertility swings and variation in public expenditure for children are related events. In the 1930s Swedish birth rates had fallen to levels close to the death rates and in public discourse this was perceived as a major social and national crisis, spurring a range of social policy reforms. While total fertility rates in Sweden have varied over large spans the completed cohort fertility rates are almost constant around 2 children per woman for women born in the 20th century. Using unique data for the years 1930-1997 on public expenditure per eligible child for schools, child allowances and child care we estimate age-specific fertility for broad age groups as a function of these variables. The results indicate that the age group 25-29 is most sensitive to variations in this public expenditure thus providing a tentative explanation of the swings in period fertility in terms of policy induced tempo variation. School expenditure is negatively correlated to fertility while child care and child allowance is positively correlated. This pattern is consistent with a quantity-quality trade-off by the parents. To check the predictive power of the model we use data from 1998-2007 and get an excellent prediction of the fertility turn-around after 1999 for all age groups except 35 and above where we tend to under-predict at the 10-year horizon. Further research along these lines is needed to uncover the causal mechanisms of these very stable correlations.
Keywords: fertility swings; tempo effects; public child expenditure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Can't connect to studieportal-elnu.lnu.se:80 (No such host is known. )
Working Paper: Swedish fertility swings and public expenditure for children (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2011_001
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in CAFO Working Papers from Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, SE 351 95 Växjö, Sweden. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Andreas Mångs ().