Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan’s Transition

Vincent Floreani, Gladys López-Acevedo () and Martin Rama
Additional contact information
Gladys López-Acevedo: World Bank
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gladys Lopez-Acevedo

No 234, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends.

Keywords: Afghanistan; Conflict; Foreign Aid; Troops; Poverty and Living Standards. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 E21 F35 I32 O17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2016-10
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/HiCN-WP-234.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan’s Transition (2021)
Working Paper: Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition (2019)
Working Paper: Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hic:wpaper:234

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tilman Brück () and () and () and ().