Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid

Richard Bluhm, Martin Gassebner, Sarah Langlotz () and Paul Schaudt
Additional contact information
Sarah Langlotz: Heidelberg University

No 265, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and deescalation. First, we develop a new ordinal measure capturing the two-sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we propose a dynamic ordered probit estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity and corrects for endogeneity. Third, we identify the causal effect of foreign aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries that are exogenous to the recipient’s conflict dynamics. Receiving bilateral aid raises the chances of escalating from small conflict to armed conflict, but we find little evidence that aid ignites conflict in truly peaceful countries.

Keywords: conflict; foreign aid; political economy; dynamic ordered panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 D74 F35 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-02
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/HiCN-WP-265.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid (2021)
Working Paper: Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid (2016)
Working Paper: Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid (2016)
Working Paper: Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid (2016)
Working Paper: Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid (2016)
Working Paper: Fueling conflict?: (De)escalation and bilateral aid (2016)
Working Paper: Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and Bilateral Aid (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hic:wpaper:265

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tilman Brück () and () and () and ().