Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks

Tilman Brück, Kai M. Dunker, Neil T. N. Ferguson (), Aline Meysonnat and Eleonora Nillesen
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Tilman Brück: ISDC – International Security and Development Center
Kai M. Dunker: ISDC – International Security and Development Center
Neil T. N. Ferguson: ISDC – International Security and Development Center
Aline Meysonnat: UNU-MERIT

No 277, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: Violent conflict is a well-recognised driver of forced migration but literature does not usually consider the pull factors that might also cause irregular movements. In turn, the decision to leave and of where to go are rarely considered separately. This is in contrast to literature on regular international migration, which considers both push and pull factors. We contribute to these literatures by studying bilateral forced migration from multiple countries of origin to 28 European countries in the years either side of two “migration crises†– the wars in the Balkans and the Arab Spring. We pay attention to dynamics by analysing lagged flows and stocks of forced migrants and modelling their spatial distribution. We find that these partial adjustment and network effects are key pull factors, with employment rate in the destination country the only significant economic variable. In addition, we demonstrate that it is episodes of escalating conflict, rather than accumulated violence, that drives decisions to leave. Out-of-sample predictions indicate that if conflict in origin countries were to cease, forced migration would continue, albeit at a significantly reduced rate. Our findings suggest that past patterns of forced migration help shape future flows, that forced migration flows cannot easily be stopped by destination country policies, and that preventing conflict escalation is important for preventing forced migration.

Keywords: Forced migration; refugees; displacement; conflict; Arab Spring; MENA; Balkans; dynamic panel data; gravity model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 F51 J61 J68 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hic:wpaper:277

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