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Perceived Temperature, Trust and Civil Unrest in Africa

Gabriel Aboyadana and Marco Alfano
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Gabriel Aboyadana: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde and School of Education, University of Glasgow
Marco Alfano: Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde and Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, University College London

No 344, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: This paper documents a significant effect of short-term temperature fluctuations on attitudes towards institutions and on civil unrest in Africa. Combining attitudinal survey and climate data, we calculate temperature as perceived by respondents via an algorithm that combines different meteorological variables. The results show that daily temperature anomalies at the location of interview increase self-reported mistrust in government and intentions to vote for opposition parties. Effects are particularly strong in poor countries where temperature anomalies also increase self-reported intentions to protest. Accordingly, we find that temperature anomalies also increase incidences of protests and riots. Evidence suggests that effects are not driven by changes in agricultural incomes.

Keywords: Climate; Trust; Conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 N57 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-env, nep-pol, nep-res and nep-soc
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