EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Integrated Militias Can Increase the Risk of Civil War Renewal

Ore Koren () and Bumba Mukherjee ()
Additional contact information
Ore Koren: Indiana University
Bumba Mukherjee: Pennsylvania State University

No 366, HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network

Abstract: Research on civil war identified multiple reason for why some transitions to peace are more robust than others. However, scholars largely ignored a key determinant of successful peace: the role of pro-government militias and their absorption into the new or recovering state. Using new data on 160 pro-government organizations (PGOs) in 144 post-civil-war contexts, we show that integrating PGOs into the security apparatus significantly shifts the hazard of conflict renewal over time upward, while integrating them into the government decreases said risk. Substantively, by year 12, security-integrated contexts are at a staggering 45% higher risk of experiencing conflict renewal compared with non-security integrated contexts, while politically integrated contexts are at a 21% lower risk of experiencing conflict renewal compared with non-politically integrated contexts. Disaggregating renewal by context, we additionally find that the adverse impact of security integration is especially acute in government victory and bargained outcome contexts; in contrast, rebel victory contexts show no effect of security integration, but a negative and statistical impact of political integration on the hazard of renewal. We conclude with a brief discussion of the implications for research and policymaking.

Keywords: Civil/Domestic Conflict; DDR; Militias; reintegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2022-04
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2022/04/WP-366.pdf First version, 2022 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hic:wpaper:366

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HiCN Working Papers from Households in Conflict Network
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tilman Brück () and () and () and ().

 
Page updated 2023-01-27
Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:366