 Development Of Composite Indicators Of Cyclical Response In Business Surveys Considering The Specifics Of The ‘Covid-19 Economy’Liudmila Kitrar () and
Tamara Lipkind ()
HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics Abstract: The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Statistically significant lead in time series or earlier publication allows them to be combined into a group of early response indicators. The composite Business Activity Indicator (BAI) in the basic sectors of the Russian economy reflects the ‘common’ profile in the dynamics of short-term fluctuations of the key parameters of the economic environment. It consists of the ‘balances of opinions’ of respondents on questions, which are unified for all sectoral surveys, and connected with reference quantitative statistics with significant cross-correlation coefficients and a lead at least one quarter. This is its main difference from the well-known indices of economic sentiment and entrepreneurial confidence. The components of the BAI are the new composite indices of real demand, current output, real employment, total profits and general economic situation. The Economic Vulnerability Indicator demonstrates a counterdirectional profile and various symmetry of its dynamics relative to the short-term movement of the BAI. Proactive monitoring of emerging vulnerabilities in the business environment is necessary to warn their large-scale accumulation, prevent the risks of economic downturns and ensure the highest possible macroeconomic stability. This integrated approach determines the novelty of the proposed measures of short-term cyclical fluctuations in economic development. Keywords: business cycles; business surveys; business activity indicator; composite indicators of cyclical response; economic vulnerability indicator; real demand indicator; current output indicator; real employment indicator. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in WP BRP Series: Science, Technology and Innovation / STI, October 2021, pages 1-20 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hig:wpaper:121sti2021 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics |
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