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Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques

Ilya Kuzminov (), Pavel Bakhtin (), Elena Khabirova () and Irina Loginova ()
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Ilya Kuzminov: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Pavel Bakhtin: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Elena Khabirova: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Irina Loginova: National Research University Higher School of Economics

No WP BRP 82/STI/2018, HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract: This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, namely computerised analysis of large volumes of unstructured text-based industry-relevant analytics. It comprises methodological results such as analytical decomposition of the trend concept, including trend attributes (inherent characteristics) and various trend types and empirical results of detection and classification of global technology trends in the agricultural sector. The study makes a significant contribution to the development of a conceptual apparatus for trend analysis as a sub-area of Foresight methodology. The agricultural field is used to demonstrate the application the methodology. The empirical results can be applied by federal and regional authorities responsible for promoting development of the sectors to design relevant strategies and programmes, and by companies to set their long-term marketing and investment priorities.

Keywords: technology trends; innovation; science and technology forecasting; science and technology progress; foresight; text mining; survey; bibliometrics; patent analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 O1 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big
Date: 2018
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Published in WP BRP Series: Science, Technology and Innovation / STI, August 2018, pages 1-35

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