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STRESS SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT: GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOR THE RUSSIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Ilya Kuzminov (), Irina Loginova () and Elena Khabirova ()
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Ilya Kuzminov: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Irina Loginova: National Research University Higher School of Economics
Elena Khabirova: National Research University Higher School of Economics

No WP BRP 88/STI/2018, HSE Working papers from National Research University Higher School of Economics

Abstract: This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in the global agricultural sector focused the impact of these development on the Russian economy. Special attention is paid to scenarios involving deviation from conventional trends, when the imbalance between production and consumption becomes particularly acute while the situation in global food markets changes quickly and significantly with serious consequences for the Russian economy. This remains dependent on developed countries, which are major suppliers of vital resources required for the Russian agricultural sector. Six stress scenarios for the Russian agricultural sector, if certain drivers are triggered, were developed. In contrast to conventional forecasts based on the trends formed in recent years, stress scenarios consider the disruption of such trends, which today are recognized by most experts as the most realistic

Keywords: stress scenarios; wildcards; black swans; weak signals; technological shifts; agricultural sector; food markets; text-mining. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 O1 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-cis
Date: 2018
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Published in WP BRP Series: Science, Technology and Innovation / STI, October 2018, pages 1-26

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