Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth?

Hyun-Hoon Lee and Kwanho Shin

No HIAS-E-86, Discussion paper series from Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: Using panel data for 142 countries for the period from 1960 to 2014, we assess the effects of population aging on economic growth. We find that population aging proxied by old-age population share (or old-age dependency ratio) negatively affects economic growth only when it reaches a certain high level and its negative effects grow stronger as population aging deepens. We also find that population aging has hampered economic growth during more recent years, especially in more aged countries which are mostly developed countries. This nonlinear effect of aging is mainly driven by the fact that we use old-age population share as a proxy for aging. If we use lower working-age population share as a proxy for aging, the nonlinear relationship disappears: working-age population share is positively related to economic growth in a linear way.

Keywords: population aging; working-age population; economic growth; nonlinearity; developed countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 O47 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2019-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-gro
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-86

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