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日本経済の成長会計分析:1885-1970年, Structural Change, Capital Deepening, and TFP Growth in Japan: 1885-1970

京司 深尾, Kyoji Fukao (), 達治 牧野, Tatsuji Makino, 斉彦 攝津 and Tokihiko Settsu

No 692, Discussion Paper Series from Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: 日本経済は1868年の明治維新以降,アジアで最初に近代経済成長を開始し,第二次世界大戦後の高度成長期を経て,1970年ごろには欧州の主要国にほぼ追いついた.戦前の経済成長率は西欧諸国とほぼ同水準であったものの,高度成長期に急激な産業構造の変化を伴いながら,アメリカ・イギリスの4倍という高い成長率を達成したことが,このようなキャッチアップを可能とした.本論文では,このおよそ100年間に及ぶ経済成長の過程を,近年整備された新たなGDP推計にもとづき,成長会計の手法を用いて分析する.特に,産業構造の変化,すなわち資源の再配分の効果が,経済成長にどのような影響を与えたのかを明らかにするべく,第一次産業と非第一次産業に分けて分析を試みた.我々の分析の結果,以下の知見を得た.戦前の第一次産業は,企業勃興期から第一次世界大戦ブーム期にかけて労働生産性の上昇が著しかったが,同期間の前半部分においては, TFPの上昇がその主要因となっていたのに対し,後半部分については労働者1人あたり資本ストックおよび耕地面積の寄与が相対的に大きかった.非第一次産業では,戦前期のほぼ全期間を通じて,TFPの上昇が労働生産性上昇を説明する主要因であった.戦後については,高度成長の源泉はTFPの上昇と労働者1人あたり資本ストックの増加の寄与であったが,その上昇率は非第一次産業で圧倒的に大きかった.また,これらの成長要因と比較すると,資源の再配分効果は限定的なものであった., After the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan modernized its institutions and economic growth gradually picked up. Growth accelerated especially during the so-called high-speed growth era from 1955 to 1970, when Japan rapidly caught up with Western economies. The long-term sustained high-speed growth recorded during this period was unprecedented not only in Japan but worldwide. While other East Asian countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and China subsequently also experienced remarkable growth over a prolonged period, Japan’s place in history as the first country to record such sustained high-speed growth means that its experience continues to garner worldwide interest. Using newly constructed Hitotsubashi estimates of Japan’s historical GDP statistics and a growth accounting flamework, we analyze the sources of Japan’s economic growth from 1885 to 1970 and try to answer why Japan was not able accomplish such high-speed growth before 1955. Since until the mid-1960s the primary sector accounted for a large share of economic activity and was a major determinant of overall economic growth, we use a Hayashi and Prescott (2008) type two-sector model in which the economy overall is divided into the primary sector and the non-primary sector

Date: 2019-05
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