Estimating the shares of secondary- and tertiary-sector output in the age of early modern growth: the case of Japan, 1600-1874

Osamu Saito and Masanori Takashima

No DP15-4, RCESR Discussion Paper Series from Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

Abstract: This paper proposes a new methodology of estimating non-primary sector output shares in early modern growth. By using data from proto-industrial Japan, the paper demonstrates, first, that not just the rate of urbanisation but population density would also work as another predictor of the secondary and tertiary sectoral shares when growth was rural-centred; and second, that regional panel data should be constructed from earliest possible sets of modern data to estimate the coefficients of these two variables on the sectoral shares. In order to apply the coefficients derived from modern data for the calculation of pre-modern estimates, regional panel data are far superior to simple time-series statistics. The paper presents new per-capita GDP estimates thus computed for Japan 1600-1874, together with a brief comparison with previous estimates, especially those by Angus Maddison.

Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2015-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro and nep-his
Note: This version: 26 May 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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