EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

A $15 Federal Minimum Wage is Outside Historical Experience

Ian Fillmore ()
Additional contact information
Ian Fillmore: Washington University in St. Louis

No 2021-048, Working Papers from Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group

Abstract: How informative is historical experience with the minimum wage about the consequences of raising the federal minimum to $15? This paper compares a hypothetical $15 federal minimum to the most recent federal minimum wage increase, in 2007, from $5.15 to $7.25. I describe a straightforward method for using publicly available data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program to assess whether a proposed minimum wage increase is within historical experience. I illustrate the method by comparing the occupations and industries most directly affected by the 2007 increase with those that would be affected by a $15 minimum wage. By any measure, a $15 minimum wage is far outside historical experience—in both its size and the breadth of occupations and industries it would affect—and the frontier of historical experience is a minimum wage between $9 and $11 per hour. I recommend that future minimum wage proposals, both federal and local, include a similar analysis to assess whether the proposal is within historical experience. Finally, I argue for future research to take advantage of several scheduled state-level minimum wage hikes to estimate heterogeneous employment effects by occupation and industry.

Keywords: employment; Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics; OEWS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J31 J38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-isf
Note: MIP
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Fillmo ... e-historical-exp.pdf First version, September 15, 2021 (application/pdf)
http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Fillmo ... torical-exp_rev1.pdf Second version, October 20, 2021 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hka:wpaper:2021-048

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jennifer Pachon ().

 
Page updated 2023-02-02
Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2021-048