Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence
Pamela Giustinelli ()
No 2022-026, Working Papers from Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group
This paper reviews the economic literature on subjective expectations in education with a focus on high income countries. It begins with highlighting the motivations that prompted systematic survey elicitation and statistical analysis of youth's expectations of the returns to schooling and with tracing key milestones in the development of this research program. It then proceeds to reviewing the relevant body of research by organizing the discussion around four topics: (i) the analysis of the perceived monetary returns, risks, and costs of schooling; (ii) the analysis of the perceived nonmonetary returns, risks, and costs of schooling; (iii) the analysis of schooling decisions; (iv) the analysis of expectation formation and learning. For each topic, the paper provides: (a) a motivating analytical framework; (b) a methodological discussion of expectations elicitation and a survey of data collections; (c) a review of the empirical evidence. Avenues for future research are discussed in the conclusion.
Keywords: education; expectations; returns to schooling; schooling decisions; subjective probabilities; survey elicitation; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 I26 J24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Giusti ... ons-in-education.pdf First version, August 19, 2022 (application/pdf)
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