Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Yin-Wong Cheung

No 112000, Working Papers from Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Abstract: Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and is "Granger-caused" by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and are mainly responsible for output uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of domestic and foreign output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the U.S. does not appear to exert undue influence on Hong Kong.

Keywords: Common Trends/Cycles; Transmission Mechanism; Structural Determinants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2000-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis (2001)
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