EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Feast and Famine: Explaining Big Swings in the Hong Kong Economy between 1981 and 2007

Chak Hung J. Cheng and Michael K. Salemi
Additional contact information
Chak Hung J. Cheng: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Michael K. Salemi: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill ,Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

No 372009, Working Papers from Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Abstract: On average between 1981 and 2007, output per capita in Hong Kong grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent. But economic performance over the period was far from even. Between 1987 and 1997, output per capita averaged 9.7 percent above its long run growth path. In 1997, the feast ended and the famine began. Over the next 11 years, output per capita averaged 5.2 percent below its long run path. This paper attempts to explain this big swing. We use two types of analysis. First, we use a nine-variable Bayesian Vector Autoregression and summarize the results as a set of stylized facts. Chief among these is the finding that economic activity in Hong Kong is highly sensitive to shocks of foreign origin. Second, we set our and estimate a dynamic, general equilibrium model which is able to account, at least qualitatively, for our stylized facts. We use the model to infer the relative importance of different shocks in accounting for feast and famine in Hong Kong.

Pages: 73 pages
Date: 2009-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/111/ub_full_0_2_232_wp-no-37_2009.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found (http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/111/ub_full_0_2_232_wp-no-37_2009.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://www.aof.org.hk/research/HKIMR/uploads/publication/111/ub_full_0_2_232_wp-no-37_2009.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> https://www.aof.org.hk/research/HKIMR/uploads/publication/111/ub_full_0_2_232_wp-no-37_2009.pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hkm:wpaper:372009

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by HKIMR ().

 
Page updated 2021-02-20
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:372009