Low-Carbon Futures for Shenzhen’s Urban Passenger Transport System

Shengyuan Zhang () and Jimin Zhao ()
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Shengyuan Zhang: Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Jimin Zhao: Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

No 2016-33, HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series from HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies

Abstract: China has established ambitious CO2 emission reduction targets, and sustainable urban passenger transport is a key to reaching them. Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving low-carbon development. Using an Activity Structure–Intensity–Fuel (ASIF) framework and a human-based approach that incorporates individual transport behavior using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we model different scenarios for future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 2014 to 2050. We find that if Shenzhen successfully constructs urban structures with greater density around the public transportation network, and finds effective ways to restrict vehicle ownership and use (either through mandatory schemes or pricing) while making substantial investments in the walking and cycling environment, it is possible for total urban passenger transport emissions to peak at 4.3 MtCO2 in 2025, and individual emissions would fall by over 65% compared to its 2014 level, reaching 118 kgCO2/person by 2050.

Keywords: ASIF; carbon emissions; energy consumption; urban transportation; scenario analysis; transportation policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2016-06, Revised 2016-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-tre and nep-ure
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