The Winter Choke: Coal-Fired Heating, Air Pollution, and Mortality in China

Maoyong Fan (), Guojun He and Maigeng Zhou ()
Additional contact information
Maoyong Fan: Department of Economics, Ball State University, Whitinger Business Building, Room 201, 2000 W. University Avenue, Muncie, IN 47306
Maigeng Zhou: National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China

No 2020-71, HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series from HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies

Abstract: China’s coal-fired winter heating systems generate large amounts of hazardous emissions that significantly deteriorate air quality. Exploiting regression discontinuity designs based on the exact starting dates of winter heating across different cities, we estimate the contemporaneous impact of winter heating on air pollution and health. We find that turning on the winter heating system increased the weekly Air Quality Index by 36% and caused 14% increase in mortality rate. This implies that a 10-point increase in the weekly Air Quality Index causes a 2.2% increase in overall mortality. People in poor and rural areas are particularly affected by the rapid deterioration in air quality; this implies that the health impact of air pollution may be mitigated by improved socio- economic conditions. Exploratory cost-benefit analysis suggests that replacing coal with natural gas for heating can improve social welfare.

Keywords: Winter Heating Policy; Air Pollution; Mortality; Coal to Gas; Regression Discontinuity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I18 Q48 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60 pages
Date: 2020-03, Revised 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-hea
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (84)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The winter choke: Coal-Fired heating, air pollution, and mortality in China (2020)
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