Air Pollution and COVID-19 Transmission in China

Guojun He, Yuhang Pan () and Takanao Tanaka ()
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Yuhang Pan: Division of Environment and Sustainability, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay,Hong Kong
Takanao Tanaka: Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong

No 2021-80, HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series from HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies

Abstract: Accurately estimating the effect of air pollution on COVID-19 transmission requires researchers to account for the epidemiological characteristics, deal with endogeneity, and capture the dynamic impact of air pollution. To do so, we propose a new econometric framework by combining the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model, the Instrument Variable model, and the Flexible-Distributed-Lag model. Using data covering all Chinese cities, we find that a 10-point increase in the Air Quality Index would lead to a 2.80 percentage point increase in the daily COVID-19 growth rate with 2 to 13 days of delay, implying that improving air quality can help slow the COVID-19 spread.

Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2020-12, Revised 2021-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-ene and nep-env
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https://iems.ust.hk/assets/publications/working-papers-2021/iemswp2021-80.pdf Revised version, 2021 (application/pdf)

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