Technology Benchmarks for Sustained Economic Growth

Kenneth Simons

No 00/5, Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics from Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London

Abstract: An economic growth theory model is developed in which worldwide economic and population growth is optimistically allowed to be increasing in current population-and-economy size, but degradation of environmental quality can cause eventual population-and-economic collapse. The existence of an environmental technology time path that guarantees sustained growth (dY/dt >= 0) is proven. This time path is labeled a technology benchmark, a path of environmental technology in use that society must achieve to ensure against population-and-economic collapse. The World3 global simulation model, developed by an interdisciplinary team of scientists to analyze global growth and its relation to environmental issues, is used to derive estimates of the requisite time path for several key technologies. The estimated time paths are compared with available information on actual rates of technological change. Such technology benchmarks could serve as measurable goals for national and international policy.

Keywords: economic growth; limits; environment; technology benchmarks; global change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O3 O4 Q0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2001-02, Revised 2001-02
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