An Easier Way to Calibrate

Drew Fudenberg and David Levine

Scholarly Articles from Harvard University Department of Economics

Abstract: Forecasts are said to be calibrated if the frequency predictions are approximately correct. This is a refinement of an idea first introduced by David Blackwell in 1955. We show that “ K -initialized myopic strategies†are approximately calibrated when K is large. These strategies first “initialize†by making each forecast exactly K times, and thereafter play, in each period t , the minmax strategy in a static game.

Date: 1999
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Published in Games and Economic Behavior

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Related works:
Journal Article: An Easier Way to Calibrate (1999)
Working Paper: An Easier Way to Calibrate (1996)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hrv:faseco:3203773

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