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No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns

Ludger Hentschel and John Campbell ()

Scholarly Articles from Harvard University Department of Economics

Abstract: It seems plausible that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock prices. We develop a formal model of this volatility feedback effect using a simple model of changing variance (a quadratic generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic, or QGARCH, model). Our model is asymmetric and helps to explain the negative skewness and excess kurtosis of U.S. monthly and daily stock returns over the period 1926–1988. We find that volatility feedback normally has little effect on returns, but it can be important during periods of high volatility.

Date: 1992
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Published in Journal of Financial Economics

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http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3220232/campbell_nonews.pdf (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns (1992) Downloads
Working Paper: No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns (1991) Downloads
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