Generalized Exogenous Processes in DSGE: A Bayesian Approach
Alexander Meyer-Gohde and
SFB 649 Discussion Papers from Humboldt University, Collaborative Research Center 649
The Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method can enhance Bayesian DSGE estimation by sampling from a posterior distribution spanning potentially nonnested models with parameter spaces of different dimensionality. We use the method to jointly sample from an ARMA process of unknown order along with the associated parameters. We apply the method to the technology process in a canonical neoclassical growth model using post war US GDP data and find that the posterior decisively rejects the standard AR(1) assumption in favor of higher order processes. While the posterior contains significant uncertainty regarding the exact order, it concentrates posterior density on hump-shaped impulse responses. A negative response of hours to a positive technology shock is within the posterior credible set when noninvertible MA representations are admitted.
Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Model evaluation; ARMA; Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C51 C52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-ecm
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Working Paper: Generalized exogenous processes in DSGE: A Bayesian approach (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-014
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