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Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies

Norbert Schanne (), Rüdiger Wapler () and Antje Weyh ()
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Rüdiger Wapler: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 200828, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "We forecast unemployment for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small size, strong spatial interdependencies exist between these regional units. To account for these as well as for the heterogeneity in the regional development over time, we apply different versions of an univariate spatial GVAR model. When comparing the forecast precision with univariate time-series methods, we find that the spatial model does indeed perform better or at least as well. Hence, the GVAR model provides an alternative or complementary approach to commonly used methods in regional forecasting which do not consider regional interdependencies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Prognosegenauigkeit; Prognosemodell; Prognoseverfahren; regionale Disparität; regionale Verteilung; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt; Regionalökonomie; Arbeitsagenturbezirke; Arbeitslosigkeit; Arbeitsmarktprognose; 1998-2006 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C31 C53 E24 O18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-for, nep-lab, nep-mac and nep-ure
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Published in/as: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 26, No. 4 (2010), S. 908-926, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.07.002

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https://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2008/dp2808.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies (2007) Downloads
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