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Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error

John Moffat () and Duncan Roth ()

No 201637, IAB Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "Using data from 49 European regions covering 2005-2012, this paper finds that the estimated effect of cohort size on employment and unemployment outcomes is very sensitive to the age range of the sample. We argue that this is because the identification strategy commonly used in this literature is unable to eliminate the bias caused by measurement error in the cohort-size variable. The latter arises because large shares of the young choose to acquire education and consequently the size of an age group provides a poor measure of age-specific labour supply. In our view older age groups provide a more suitable sample to test the implications of cohort crowding since the former will have largely entered the labour market. Using a sample aged 25 - 29, which has relatively low rates of participation in education, we find robust evidence that an increase in cohort size increases employment and reduces unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Kohortenanalyse; Jugend; Jugendliche; berufliche Integration; Arbeitsmarktforschung; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Altersstruktur - Auswirkungen; Beschäftigungseffekte; Arbeitslosigkeit; Stichprobenfehler; regionaler Vergleich; Europäisches Haushaltspanel; Arbeitslosenquote; Erwerbsquote; Messfehler; Europa; Österreich; Belgien; Tschechische Republik; Dänemark; Estland; Griechenland; Spanien; Frankreich; Ungarn; Italien; Litauen; Luxemburg; Lettland; Polen; Schweden; Slowakei (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 J21 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66 pages
Date: 2016-10-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-lma and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

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Working Paper: Cohort size and youth labour-market outcomes: the role of measurement error (2014) Downloads
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