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QuBe-Bevölkerungsprojektion für die Kreise und kreisfreien Städte Deutschlands

Maximilian Studtrucker, Michael Kalinowski, Christian Schneemann (), Doris Söhnlein () and Gerd Zika ()
Additional contact information
Maximilian Studtrucker: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Michael Kalinowski: BIBB
Christian Schneemann: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Doris Söhnlein: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Gerd Zika: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 202219, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has produced a new population projection for long-term development up to the year 2050 as part of the long-term qualification and occupation projections (www.QuBe-Projekt.de). In addition to updated population figures at the federal level, a projection for the 401 districts within Germany is determined for the first time. This regional QuBe population projection differs from existing projections in particular by distinguishing between persons with and without German citizenship. The distinction in terms of origin facilitates a more precise projection, as it allows for the inclusion of differences in birth rates and migration flows. As the first population projection, the QuBe population projection also considers the changes in migration patterns within Germany caused by the Corona pandemic and the war against Ukraine. Our results show that, in addition to an aging population, the trend toward urbanization is intensifying the population decline in rural areas and especially in eastern Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Pandemie; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation; Ausländer; Auswirkungen; Bevölkerungsprognose; Binnenwanderung; Einwanderung; Geburtenhäufigkeit; Inländer; Krieg; Landflucht; Landkreis; Lebenserwartung; Altersstruktur; BIBB/IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen; Stadt; Urbanisierung; 1991-2050 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 J11 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2022-08-04
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https://doi.org/10.48720/IAB.DP.2219

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202219

DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2219

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