Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine

Matthias Neuenkirch, Maria Repko and Enzo Weber
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Maria Repko: Centre for Economic Strategy, Kyiv

No 202301, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the West has been intensively discussing its support strategy. Hawkish positions of strengthening Ukraine via armaments, financial resources, and sanctions against Russia compete with dovish views of avoiding further escalation of the military and geopolitical conflict. News from the war became a dominating factor for international politics and the world economy. In this paper, we analyse how international financial markets perceived this news, especially on Western positions. We create a comprehensive data set of news related to the war and measure reactions of five key financial markets. The results show that stronger support for Ukraine had a negative impact in the first weeks of the war. Thus, financial markets seem to have perceived it as a risk of further escalation threatening global economic activity. However, we find the perceptions strongly changed when the Ukrainian position in the war improved. Since that time, a hawkish line was a positive signal for financial markets. The results also confirm that the war and escalation in general had harmful effects on international financial markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Russland; Ukraine; USA; Westeuropa; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation; Auswirkungen; Finanzmarkt; Entwicklung; Flüchtlingsfürsorge; Handelshemmnis; internationale Zusammenarbeit; Konfliktverhalten; Aktienkurs; Krieg; Militär; öffentliche Ausgaben; Risikoabschätzung; Sanktion; Weltwirtschaft; Wirtschaftsförderung; 2022-2022 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 43 pages
Date: 2023-01-30
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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https://doi.org/10.48720/IAB.DP.2301

Related works:
Working Paper: Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine (2023)
Working Paper: Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine (2023)
Working Paper: Hawks and Doves: Financial Market Perception of Western Support for Ukraine (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202301

DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2301

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