A note on export redirection: Evidence following the onset of the war in Ukraine

Christian Hutter, Ignat Stepanok and Enzo Weber
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Christian Hutter: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Ignat Stepanok: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 202307, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "The war in Ukraine triggered a global trade shock, with German exports to Russia also collapsing abruptly. Using this break, we analyse whether the exports were redirected to other destinations. We divide the world market into three regions: domestic, eurozone, and the rest of the world (ROW). In a panel model of German industries, we find that higher export exposure to Russia meant lower sales to the ROW after the war began. This was offset by higher sales in the eurozone and domestic markets. The effects occurred quickly but later receded. We find no production decline due to the trade shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Russland; Ukraine; Welt; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation; Außenhandel; Auswirkungen; Eurozone; Export; Exportabhängigkeit; Exportquote; Absatzentwicklung; Krieg; Produktionsentwicklung; verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Zielgebiet; 2021-2022 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2023-06-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-int and nep-mfd
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https://doi.org/10.48720/IAB.DP.2307

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202307

DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2307

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