The Downfall of Assad: Syrian Refugees’ Settlement Intentions after the Unexpected Regime Change

Luisa Hammer, Kamal Kassam, Yuliya Kosyakova, Katia Gallegos-Torres, Lukas Olbrich, Theresa Koch and Simon Wagner
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Luisa Hammer: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Kamal Kassam: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Yuliya Kosyakova: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Katia Gallegos-Torres: IAB und ZEW
Lukas Olbrich: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Theresa Koch: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Simon Wagner: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 202509, IAB-Discussion Paper from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "On December 8, 2024, the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, abruptly changed Syria’s political landscape and reshaped the return prospects for millions of Syrians living abroad. We exploit this unanticipated regime change as a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of homeland developments on refugees’ settlement and return intentions. Drawing on novel survey data from Germany, launched just days before Assad’s fall, we find that the regime collapse significantly affected the expressed settlement intentions of Syrians in Germany. Respondents interviewed afterward were more likely to express temporary settlement intentions, more likely to report emigration considerations, and more likely to express uncertainty about their future in Germany. However, we find no effect on concrete short-term emigration plans, suggesting that increased return aspirations reflect forward-looking intentions rather than immediate behavioral change. Further analyses shows that legal security in Germany and weaker social or emotional integration correlate with a stronger preference for temporary stay." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: IAB-Befragung; International; Mobility; Panel; of; Migrants; in; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 F22 J15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2025-06-26
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https://doi.org/10.48720/IAB.DP.2509

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202509

DOI: 10.48720/IAB.DP.2509

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