Prognose 2011/2012: Schwerere Zeiten für den Arbeitsmarkt (Forecast 2011/2012: Uncertain times for the German labour market)

Johann Fuchs, Markus Hummel, Christian Hutter, Sabine Klinger, Eugen Spitznagel, Susanne Wanger, Enzo Weber and Gerd Zika
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Johann Fuchs: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Markus Hummel: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Sabine Klinger: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Eugen Spitznagel: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Susanne Wanger: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany
Gerd Zika: Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany

No 201119, IAB-Kurzbericht from Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]

Abstract: "After economic expectations indicators declined sharply in summer, Germany+s business cycle development is about to cool down. We expect real gdp to grow by only 1 percent in 2012. Furthermore, the positive effects resulting from structural improvements after the labour market reforms and wage moderations might fade out. As a consequence, an assumed gdp growth by 1 percent will not induce as much employment as it would have done during the past few years. Employment will only increase by 170.000 persons up to 41.24 mio. Unemployment will decline by 50.000 persons down to 2.92 mio. Both figures are mainly due to a statistical carry-over effect at the beginning of the year. At the moment, uncertainty about the future economic development is immense. If the risks stemming from the world economy or the European monetary system realized, gdp might even turn into a slight recession. Even then unemployment would probably not exceed 3 mio." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland; Beschäftigungsentwicklung; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial; Jahresarbeitszeit; sozialversicherungspflichtige Arbeitnehmer; stille Reserve; Arbeitskräfteangebot; Arbeitskräftehortung; Arbeitskräftenachfrage; Arbeitslosigkeit; Unterbeschäftigung; Arbeitsmarktprognose; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Arbeitsvolumen; Arbeitszeitentwicklung; 2011-2012 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 12 pages
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iab:iabkbe:201119

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